Live since March 20, 2026

$2,300 → $100K.
Weather markets. Real edge.
TARGET: DEC 31, 2026

We're compounding a real account to $100K by December 31, 2026 — trading NO bets on Kalshi weather markets. Every signal we send, we're already in the trade. Signals within 2–30 minutes.

Open positions

150

Subscriber cap

$100K

Goal · Dec 31 2026

Settled bets

150

Max subscribers

Get founding member access → See how it works

First 50 subscribers lock in $29/mo forever. Upgrade anytime for faster signals.

How it works

Three gates. Zero discretion.

Every signal comes from an automated scanner that runs every 5 minutes across all 46 Kalshi weather markets. No gut calls. No hunches. Just the rules.

Step 01

NWS forecast pulled

We fetch hourly temperature data from the National Weather Service — specifically from the ASOS station that Kalshi uses for settlement. Not your weather app. Not AccuWeather. The exact source Kalshi settles on.

Step 02

Buffer calculated

For each market, we compute the distance between the NWS forecast and the market threshold. Each signal must meet our minimum buffer criteria. Below our threshold, normal forecast noise erases the edge entirely. No exceptions.

Step 03

The moment we're in, you're in.

The second we place a bet, the signal goes out. Instant members get it within ~2 minutes. Pro within 10. Standard and Founding within 30. We're all in the same trade — same market, same outcome. Our money is on the line every time yours is.

What a signal looks like

Clean, specific, actionable

No jargon. No hedging. Every signal tells you exactly what to bet, why it qualifies, and what the edge is.

📡 Tier 1 Signal

Market Boston High · Mar 21

Bet NO — high stays below 57°F

Criteria ✓ Meets all Tier 1 requirements

NWS Forecast high: 44°F

Price 97¢ NO ($1.00 payout)

Settles on NWS Boston (official Kalshi source)

You're notified within 30 min of our entry · Settles tonight

The rules

Why we only take Tier 1 plays

Most people betting weather markets pick anything near 97¢ and hope for the best. We built three hard gates — and nothing goes through that doesn't clear all three.

🌡️

Our criteria required

The NWS forecast must clear our minimum buffer from the market threshold. Below it, normal forecast error makes the bet a coin flip dressed up as a sure thing. We've seen it cost money firsthand.

Proprietary minimum buffer

💰

94–97¢ NO pricing only

Too cheap (below 94¢) means the market knows something. Too rich (above 97¢) and there's no profit left after fees. We only operate in the band where edge and liquidity intersect.

Price window: 94–97¢

📍

Exact settlement station

Kalshi settles on NWS Climatological Reports — a specific station for each city. Chicago uses Midway, not O'Hare. Philadelphia's CLIPHL can differ from the airport by a full degree. We use the right source every time.

46 cities, exact coordinates

⚖️

Disciplined position sizing

No single bet exceeds 15% of capital. No single region exceeds 25%. We always keep 12% in cash reserve. Every position is sized to survive a losing streak — not just win the next trade.

Conservative compounding

Track record

Every trade, public and unedited

Official launch: March 20, 2026. Every trade documented from day one. No survivorship bias, no cherry-picking. When we lose, you'll see it here first.

0–0

W-L on settled trades

Open positions

Settled P&L

$2,320

Starting bankroll → $100K goal

Day 1 · March 20, 2026

Bet	Direction	Confidence	Entry price	Contracts	Result
Boston stays below 57°F · Mar 21	NO / High	✓ Criteria met	97¢	98	OPEN
LA stays below 83°F · Mar 21	NO / High	✓ Criteria met	90–91¢	~287	OPEN
Austin stays below 53°F · Mar 21	NO / Low	✓ Criteria met	96¢	150	OPEN

This is day one. Results post here the moment markets settle — wins and losses both.

Pricing

Speed is the edge.

We always place our own bet first — you get the signal after. Choose your delay window. All tiers get the same signals, same markets, same analysis. The only difference is how fast.

Founding member

🏅 Founding · First 50

^$29

per month

🔒 Locked forever at this price

✓ All Tier 1 signals
✓ 30-min delay
✓ Weekly P&L report
✓ Full trade archive
✓ Founding badge + rate locked forever
✓ Pro-tier position sizing

Claim founding access →

📊 Standard

^$49

per month

✓ All Tier 1 signals
✓ 30-min delay
✓ Weekly P&L report
✓ Full trade archive
— Rate lock
— Founding badge

Subscribe →

Questions worth asking

Why the delay? +

Every signal we send, we're already in that trade. The delay window is what you're paying for. Instant tier gets the signal ~2 minutes after our execution. Standard gets it 30 minutes later. Both get the identical signal — the difference is how much of the market window you have left. Same conviction either way: our money is always on the line first.

What happens when there are no Tier 1 plays? +

You hear nothing. The scanner runs every 5 minutes — if no market clears our criteria, nothing goes out. Some days that's zero signals. Silence is part of the edge.

How does Kalshi settle weather markets? +

Kalshi settles on NWS Climatological Reports (CF6 documents) — official daily climate summaries from specific NOAA stations. These are different from the airport weather stations most people check. For example, Chicago settles on Midway Airport data, not O'Hare. We've mapped all 46 cities to their exact settlement station.

What's your actual win rate? +

We launched March 20, 2026. Two open positions right now — Boston and Los Angeles, both settling tomorrow. The theoretical win rate on a qualifying NO bet is approximately 98–99%, based on NWS forecast error distributions. We'll post every result here, wins and losses both, the moment markets settle.

Why only 150 subscribers? +

Kalshi weather markets have finite liquidity. If 1,000 people are all trying to buy the same 97¢ NO contract, the price moves and the edge disappears. Capping at 150 keeps subscribers from degrading each other's execution prices. When we hit the cap, we'll close the list permanently.

Do you guarantee profits? +

No. Prediction markets carry real risk — forecasts can be wrong, and a single position can lose everything wagered. We're documenting a strategy with a strong probabilistic edge, not guaranteeing outcomes. Bet only what you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice.

$2,300 → $100K.Weather markets. Real edge.TARGET: DEC 31, 2026